The IOC has faced the biggest bribery scandal in its history over the last two years and been forced to throw out members for breaking rules on taking gifts from Salt Lake when the U.S. city was successfully bidding for the 2002 Winter Games.
The U.S. Justice Department has been investigating the scandal and a trial is due to begin in the middle of next year involving officials of the Salt Lake bidding team, just eight months before the Games open in Utah in February 2002.
A successor to IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch, in charge since 1980, will be chosen in Moscow next July.
"Definitely the one who is going to succeed will not have an easy time," said Rogge. "Basically he will have to preside over Games which I am quite sure will be excellent. I expect great Games in Salt Lake City.
"But the media environment or the public opinion environment might be difficult because of the trial - if trial there is. If there is no trial there will be reminiscences to that (the scandal). That is not going to be easy.
"But I think the reforms of the IOC that have been implemented and the success of the Games will overcome that, just like the success of the Sydney Games marked the end of the reforms' period and the rehabilitation of the IOC."
Rogge, a former Belgian Olympic yachtsman who coordinated the successful Sydney Games, is expected to face his main challenge in July from IOC marketing chief Dick Pound.
South Korea's Kim un Yong, a powerful figure in world sports politics who played an important role in the organisation of the 1988 Seoul Olympics, could also enter the race. Candidates must put their names forward by April.
Rogge has a reputation as a diplomat and problem-solver. In the interview he spoke out against the "gigantism" of the Olympics following the IOC's decision on Wednesday to stop the trend of adding new sports to the Summer Games.
"I tended to realise that the Games have grown to the limit of what a modern city can provide for," Rogge said.
"Stopping gigantism and the constant increase of sports and events was a good thing."
Rogge said 70 disciplines had been added to the Olympic programme in the 12 years between the Seoul and Sydney Games. After Athens no new sports could be added to the programme without dropping other sports from the Games, he said.
"You cannot add without deleting, it's impossible. You cannot freeze the Olympic programme for ever. It's the same for other sports who want to be in - not just rugby. There are 11 sports requesting entry to the Olympic programme.
"If you look at history the IOC has always changed and has deleted sports in the past...We will not be able to maintain the quality of the Games in the long term if we are not courageous enough to take decisions in the future.
"We have to have the courage to review the programme which will be a painful issue. I don't expect a massive change...It's not going to be a revolution."
While he has many supporters in the IOC, Rogge's biggest hurdle in the election campaign could be to get the votes of members who believe he is not as tough as the straight-talking Pound, who hammers out the television rights deals which have secured the financial future of the Games.
Asked about the issue, Rogge said: "I am what I am. You say I solve problems. I solve them, I believe, with diplomacy and without bloodshed but I get to the result.
"I am a man who can say no, absolutely. I had the swinging vote in 1980 on the boycott of my (Belgian) Olympic team as chef de mission.
"I voted no against the pressure of my government to do the boycott...The way you say 'no' can be elegant. It does not have to be brutal, rude or opening your big mouth.
"People should be judged by their results, not by the noise they make."
Reuters
The Salt Lake City bribery scandal is likely to haunt the next president of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in his first year in charge, according to prospective candidate Jacques Rogge.
