With just a month remaining before the mid-April deadline for candidacies, former U.S. Olympic rower Anita DeFrantz and Hungary's ex-fencer Pal Schmitt are the only two IOC members to have already put forward their names for July's vote.
Both DeFrantz, the most senior female administrator in world sport, and Schmitt are regarded as outsiders in the battle to take over from the 80-year-old Juan Antonio Samaranch who will step down in July after exactly 21 years in the job.
Other likely contenders for the presidency have been holding fire for the last few months, tiptoeing around questions in public about the contest while quietly testing the warmth of their support among the membership.
But all that has to end soon and the last week of March is expected to see the launch of a fiercely-contested campaign.
It would be a huge surprise if Belgian surgeon Jacques Rogge did not put forward his name by the end of the month. South Korean Kim Un-yong, one of the most influential figures in sports politics, could follow close behind.
The big question is whether Canadian lawyer Dick Pound, who has been instrumental in turning the Olympic movement into a commercial success in the last two decades, will run.
Some believe that Pound will definitely run but Kim will not.
IOC battles are always difficult to predict, given the complex nature of international sports politics. Few members are prepared to call the outcome of the vote of the IOC session in Moscow.
But one thing is certain. It would be hard to find three serious candidates with more contrasting characters.
Rogge, a multi-lingual former Olympic yachtsman who was heavily involved in organising last year's successful Sydney Olympics, is likely to get a lot of backing from Europe. Some see him as the favourite for the job.
The orthopaedic surgeon, who turns 59 in May, has gained a reputation for having a safe and calm pair of hands in difficult situations and for possessing diplomatic skills.
The former world champion yachtsman, who competed at the 1968, 1972 and 1976 Olympics as well as representing his country at rugby union, guided the IOC through the controversies before the Sydney Games as chairman of the coordination commission.
Rogge is playing the same role in the problematic build-up to the next Summer Games in Athens 2004.
His ability to speak idiomatic English and French - the IOC's main languages - as well as German, Spanish and Dutch with ease gives him a huge advantage over his main rivals.
But his biggest problem will be persuading IOC members that he is as tough as either Pound or Kim.
Pound, an Ontario-born lawyer who will also be 59 later this month, has the advantage of a track record as a serious mover-and-shaker in Olympic circles for two decades. He is the IOC's money man.
The former Olympic swimmer, who reached the final of the 100 freestyle at the 1960 Rome Games, has used his legal skills to hammer out the crucial deals for television rights since the early 1980s and negotiates agreements with sponsors.
Those deals have secured the financial future of an organisation which was struggling when Samaranch took over at the 1980 Moscow Games. The Canadian has rarely been out of the limelight.
He chaired the commission to deal with the Salt Lake City bribery scandal in 1998 and 1999 when 10 members were forced out of the organisation for breaking rules on taking gifts from the U.S. city when it was bidding for the 2002 Winter Games.
That job was a double-edged sword. On the one hand it proved his toughness. On the other hand, it could cost him the votes of some members who were unhappy to see colleagues go.
Pound cannot match Rogge in linguistic skills although he does speak some French. But he has a sharp tongue, a sense of humour and a reputation for speaking his mind.
Kim has the disadvantage that he is older than Pound and Rogge. He turns 70 on March 19.
But as a former United Nations General Assembly delegate and ambassador, the Korean has a much wider experience of politics outside sport than do his rivals.
A battle with Pound could be interesting. The ad-hoc commission which investigated the Salt Lake scandal handed out a "most serious warning" to Kim, the highest sanction it could give short of expulsion.
The commission found a Salt Lake bid official had arranged to pay at least part of the salary of Kim's son when he worked with a U.S. company.
Kim denied all knowledge of the arrangement, and the commission said in a report published in March 1999 that it could not prove otherwise.
But Kim, the key figure behind the historic Seoul Olympics in 1988 which helped to rescue the image of the Games after the boycott era, has bounced back superbly since the scandal.
It is a measure of his power in world sport that he is still one of the hot favourites.
Reuters
The toe-dipping around the Olympic pool is set to stop and the serious contenders are preparing to dive into the race for world sport's most powerful job - the International Olympic Committee (IOC) presidency.
