The IOC looks ready to make history by awarding the Games to China for the first time when it votes on July 13.
Toronto and Paris are keeping up the pressure on Beijing in the final few weeks of the five-city race for the Games which will secure huge economic and political rewards as well as sporting prestige. Japan's Osaka and Istanbul are outsiders.
But seasoned Olympic observers believe it would be a huge surprise if China failed to win the vote at a meeting of all IOC members in Moscow, despite criticism of its human rights record in the last few months from US lawmakers and Tibetan exiles.
Although many of the sports facilities for the Games have yet to be built, Beijing received a glowing report from the IOC's evaluation commission last month after visits to all the bidding cities.
Just hours before the report was published, Tibetan exiles demonstrated outside the IOC's Lausanne headquarters on the banks of Lake Geneva.
One of their banners, attached to the trees outside, featured the striking image of a Tibetan monk with his hands cuffed behind his back by the five Olympic rings. ‘No Olympics in China before the liberty of Tibet’, it read.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre helped to derail the Chinese capital's bid for the 2000 Games which were awarded to Sydney. In March, a bipartisan coalition of US lawmakers asked the IOC to reject the Beijing bid due to human rights concerns.
But the recent words of the Dalai Lama, Tibet's exiled spiritual leader, are influencing the IOC, according to one senior member.
"They are on everyone's lips," the member, who did not want to be identified, said.
On a tour of the US, during which he spoke about China's suppression of Tibetan nationalism, the Dalai Lama said China should be allowed to stage the 2008 Games only if the award advanced the cause of human rights.
But the leader, who fled to India in 1959 after an abortive uprising against Chinese rule, did not simply rule out the Games going to China. He urged IOC members to listen to the opinions of human rights leaders.
"If they feel this event taking place in China would help to change, then I would support it," he said.
One IOC member added: "It is a matter of whether you close the door on China or keep it open."
TOUGH CALL
Olympic bidding races are often difficult to call and opinion can change rapidly in the last days before a decision. Rome was regarded as favourite in the 2004 race in 1997 but was overtaken by Athens in the final weeks before the vote.
Few IOC members are prepared to say which city they will be backing. But many may be attracted to the political impact they could make on the world stage by taking the Games to China.
China is an expanding market for the blue chip sponsors who back the Olympic Games and handing the event to the country would help IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch to finish his 21 years in office with a flourish.
The Chinese capital was ranked level with Paris and Toronto in the evaluation report. All three were rated as being capable of staging an ‘excellent Games’.
Some believe the report could have more of an impact in the vote than in the past since IOC members have been banned from visiting bidding cities after the Salt Lake City bribery scandal in 1998 and 1999.
But politics, both inside and outside the IOC, often play a much more important role in such votes. That is likely to be the case on July 13 when the IOC has a chance to make history.
